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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ eagles week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-7
3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
49°F
17 mph
31
PHIEagles
9-1
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
49°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
3
0
3
Eagles
7
17
0
7
31

Spread

PHI logo
-13.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
140
420
Total Plays
49
73
Yards / Play
2.9
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.54
+0.04
Passing Yards
134
244
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.18
Rushing Yards
6
176
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
0.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.66
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
8
24
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.12
-7.13
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-4
Sack EPA
-3.17
-2.23
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
56
70
Penalty EPA
-8.29
-7.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+315
Home nfelo
1,653
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+66.7
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+18.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
10/09
-4.1
24
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-8.2
7
10/29
-4.6
21
11/12
-3.2
30
11/19
1.9
66
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
1.9
66
09/17
0.7
57
09/24
-0.9
46
10/01
0.4
54
10/08
6.6
89
10/12
1.2
61
10/23
7.0
90
10/29
-3.8
26
11/05
4.7
83
11/19
-0.0
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bears logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
5
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
13
6
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
5
12
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Eagles logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
1
8
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
11
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
2
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-6
L
W
U
09/17
-22
L
L
U
09/24
6
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
O
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/12
-7
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
P
O
PHI logo

Eagles

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
13
W
W
U
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/24
3
W
L
O
10/01
2
W
W
O
10/08
27
W
W
U
10/12
5
W
W
O
10/23
10
W
W
O
10/29
23
W
W
U
11/05
28
W
W
O
11/19
28
W
W
U