CHIBears
3-7
3
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
49°F
17 mph
31
PHIEagles
9-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
49°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
3
0
3
Eagles
7
17
0
7
31
Spread
-13.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
140
420
Total Plays
49
73
Yards / Play
2.9
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.54
+0.04
Passing Yards
134
244
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.18
Rushing Yards
6
176
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
0.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.66
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
24
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.12
-7.13
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-4
Sack EPA
-3.17
-2.23
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
56
70
Penalty EPA
-8.29
-7.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+313
Home nfelo
1,653
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+65.8
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+18.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
5
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
13
6
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
5
12
Eagles Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
8
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
2
13
EPA / Rush
11
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
4
29
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
2
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U