CHIBears
2-3
27
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
013
ATLFalcons
2-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
13
6
8
27
Falcons
3
0
10
0
13
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
480
287
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
6.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
377
245
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.50
-0.19
Rushing Yards
103
42
Rush Attempts
29
13
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
60%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.27
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-6
-26
Sack EPA
-2.35
-7.42
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
47
52
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-5.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+48
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
20
32
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
30
13
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
2
21
Falcons Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
11
31
EPA / Rush
22
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
6
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U