CHIBears
3-8
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
9 mph
31
NYJJets
6-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
50°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
3
7
0
0
10
Jets
7
10
14
0
31
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
466
Total Plays
56
62
Yards / Play
5.2
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.23
Passing Yards
165
308
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.50
Rushing Yards
127
158
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
31%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.66
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-3.43
-1.26
Penalties
1
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+107
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+61.5
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.1
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
-34.3
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Siemian
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
M. White
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-34.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
14
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
4
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
2
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
20
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
10
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Jets Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
25
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
26
32
EPA / Rush
22
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U