CHIBears
1-0
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
023
GBPackers
0-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
3
7
10
Packers
0
13
0
10
23
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
168
321
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
2.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.06
Passing Yards
74
215
Comp/Att
11/27(41%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.56
-0.14
Rushing Yards
94
106
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
19
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.46
-9.18
Sacks
7
5
Sack Yards
-52
-31
Sack EPA
-8.39
-7.20
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
65
54
Penalty EPA
-6.94
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
18
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U