nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CHI logo
CHIBears
1-0
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
0
23
GBPackers
0-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
60°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
0
3
7
10
Packers
0
13
0
10
23

Spread

GB logo
-5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
168
321
Total Plays
57
66
Yards / Play
2.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.06
Passing Yards
74
215
Comp/Att
11/27(41%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.56
-0.14
Rushing Yards
94
106
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
11
19
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.46
-9.18
Sacks
7
5
Sack Yards
-52
-31
Sack EPA
-8.39
-7.20
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
65
54
Penalty EPA
-6.94
-3.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,623
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.6
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
09/18
-7.1
9
09/25
-0.9
45
10/02
-6.1
13
10/10
2.2
67
10/16
4.9
81
10/23
-5.1
18
11/07
3.2
73
11/13
-3.8
26
11/20
5.3
83
09/09
1.2
57
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.6
Value
Ptile
11/06
9.3
96
11/14
6.5
88
11/20
5.4
83
11/24
5.3
82
12/04
8.3
95
12/11
0.1
52
12/18
0.9
60
12/25
12.6
99
01/15
1.8
65
09/09
4.4
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
13
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
18
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
4
Interceptions / Game
18
10
Fumbles / Game
13
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
22
28
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
4
2
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7

EPA

EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
20
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
9
1
Turnover EPA / Game
32
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
5
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
2
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
6
W
W
O
11/13
24
W
W
O
11/20
11
W
W
O
11/27
-5
L
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
-3
L
W
U
12/18
-24
L
L
O
12/25
-14
L
L
O
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/20
9
W
L
O
11/24
12
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
L
O
12/11
30
W
W
O
12/18
-5
L
L
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
01/01
4
W
W
O
01/15
-17
L
L
O
09/09
-8
L
L
O