CHIBears
1-2
14
TBD
Lambeau Field
65°F
5 mph
35
GBPackers
2-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
65°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
0
7
14
Packers
14
7
7
7
35
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
260
Total Plays
64
53
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.22
Passing Yards
205
169
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
19/27(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.38
Rushing Yards
103
91
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.96
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-13
-10
Sack EPA
-6.92
-3.89
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
62
55
Penalty EPA
-8.02
-6.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-14.6
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-14.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
26
Yards / Game
30
23
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
28
30
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
25
9
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
23
31
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
17
11
EPA / Pass
23
13
EPA / Rush
2
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
4
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U