nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ packers week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CHI logo
CHIBears
4-3
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
14 mph
20
GBPackers
5-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
10
7
3
27
Packers
10
0
10
0
20

Spread

CHI logo
+10

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
442
312
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.04
Passing Yards
271
113
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.59
Rushing Yards
171
199
Rush Attempts
33
29
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.90
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-1
-28
Sack EPA
-1.76
-5.08
Penalties
4
--
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-4.07
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+67.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-56.5
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-56.5
Value
Ptile
09/16
-9.0
3
09/23
-1.5
39
11/04
-6.1
11
11/11
-6.4
10
12/02
5.4
83
12/09
-3.9
25
12/16
0.2
51
12/23
-4.6
21
12/25
1.9
65
01/01
-8.8
3
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Value
Ptile
12/30
6.1
88
01/05
1.4
59
01/12
4.9
81
09/08
3.6
74
09/15
12.2
98
09/22
-3.4
28
10/06
2.9
70
10/13
-0.4
47
10/20
6.9
90
10/27
6.6
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Bears logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25

EPA

EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
8
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
8
Interceptions / Game
12
26
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Packers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32

EPA

EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
4
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
25
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-8
L
L
U
12/23
15
W
W
O
12/30
2
W
L
O
09/08
3
W
P
O
09/15
1
W
L
O
09/22
17
W
W
O
09/29
-8
L
L
O
10/06
-8
L
L
U
10/10
6
W
L
O
10/20
-4
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-3
L
L
O
01/05
14
W
W
U
01/12
-14
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
L
O
09/15
18
W
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
10/06
13
W
W
U
10/13
2
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
10/27
13
W
W
O