CHIBears
4-3
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
14 mph
20
GBPackers
5-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
49°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
7
10
7
3
27
Packers
10
0
10
0
20
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
312
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
-0.04
Passing Yards
271
113
Comp/Att
22/41(54%)
12/21(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.59
Rushing Yards
171
199
Rush Attempts
33
29
Yards / Rush
5.2
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
15
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.90
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-1
-28
Sack EPA
-1.76
-5.08
Penalties
4
--
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-4.07
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+225
Home nfelo
1,675
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+67.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.5
Away QB Adjustment
-56.5
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-56.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
15
25
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
8
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
8
Interceptions / Game
12
26
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
17
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32
EPA
EPA / Play
8
31
EPA / Pass
10
16
EPA / Rush
4
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
16
7
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U