CHIBears
4-12
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
16°F
13 mph
22
GBPackers
11-5
TBD
Lambeau Field
16°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
1
7
0
10
18
Packers
3
10
0
9
22
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
367
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
3.9
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.21
Passing Yards
141
184
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.21
Rushing Yards
83
183
Rush Attempts
26
33
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.99
-12.23
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-21
Sack EPA
-1.53
-8.69
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
45
45
Penalty EPA
-4.05
-2.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,651
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
-2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.9
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
22
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
5
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
20
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Packers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
29
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
8
10
EPA / Rush
8
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
20
18
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
10
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
0-10
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U