CHIBears
2-4
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
014
NEPatriots
3-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
10
6
7
33
Patriots
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
260
Total Plays
70
48
Yards / Play
5.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.38
Passing Yards
147
190
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.29
Rushing Yards
243
70
Rush Attempts
45
19
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
12
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
61%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.32
-17.19
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-8
Sack EPA
-5.57
-2.48
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
+0.24
-2.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model77.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+242
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,368
Home Field
+45.9
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
214.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7
EPA
EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
2
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
22
3
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
31
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
24
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U