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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ patriots week 7, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
2-4
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0
14
NEPatriots
3-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
10
6
7
33
Patriots
0
14
0
0
14

Spread

CHI logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
390
260
Total Plays
70
48
Yards / Play
5.6
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.38
Passing Yards
147
190
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.29
Rushing Yards
243
70
Rush Attempts
45
19
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
24
12
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
61%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
11
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.32
-17.19
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-8
Sack EPA
-5.57
-2.48
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
+0.24
-2.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model77.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,368
Home Field
+46.6
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
+14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
-1.3
Final Difference
215.5
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Value
Ptile
11/08
0.6
57
11/21
-5.6
16
12/12
0.6
57
12/20
2.0
68
09/11
-4.6
21
09/18
-6.6
11
09/25
-11.5
1
10/02
-6.6
10
10/09
1.9
68
10/13
-3.5
25
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
11/28
3.8
79
12/06
-5.0
20
12/18
-0.1
53
12/26
-6.5
12
01/02
4.7
83
01/09
-0.2
52
01/15
0.3
55
09/11
-1.3
44
09/18
0.2
54
09/25
-2.4
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Patriots Defense
Bears logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
28
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7

EPA

EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
2
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
22
3
Fumbles / Game
20
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
13
21
Patriots Offense vs Bears Defense
Patriots logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
16
32
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
31

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
24
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
32
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-8
L
L
U
12/26
1
W
W
O
01/02
26
W
W
U
01/09
-14
L
L
O
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
3
W
P
O
10/02
-8
L
L
U
10/09
-7
L
W
O
10/13
-5
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-12
L
L
O
01/02
40
W
W
O
01/09
-9
L
L
O
01/15
-30
L
L
O
09/11
-13
L
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/25
-11
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
W
O
10/09
29
W
W
U
10/16
23
W
W
O