CHIBears
2-2
20
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
09
OAKRaiders
3-1
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
14
0
6
20
Raiders
3
0
0
6
9
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
259
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
4.2
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.22
Passing Yards
109
188
Comp/Att
13/21(62%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.26
Rushing Yards
143
71
Rush Attempts
37
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.08
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-10
-18
Sack EPA
-1.61
-2.53
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
70
82
Penalty EPA
-2.77
-9.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
-40.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-40.3
Value
Ptile
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
21
11
Rushing Yards / Game
15
15
EPA
EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
4
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
16
4th Down Efficiency
28
32
RZ Efficiency
30
32
Raiders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
8
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
16
EPA / Pass
15
20
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
32
11
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
7
11
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U