CHIBears
5-1
10
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
024
LARRams
4-2
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
1
4
Rams
7
3
14
0
24
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
279
371
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.15
Passing Yards
230
211
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.11
Rushing Yards
49
160
Rush Attempts
17
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.36
-6.95
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-7.77
-2.88
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
46
46
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-5.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
Bears+6.5
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,550
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
+0.8
Final Difference
103.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
24
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
18
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U