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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ rams week 7, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CHI logo
CHIBears
5-1
10
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
24
LARRams
4-2
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
0
1
4
Rams
7
3
14
0
24

Spread

LAR logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
279
371
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.15
Passing Yards
230
211
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.11
Rushing Yards
49
160
Rush Attempts
17
34
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-10.36
-6.95
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-31
-9
Sack EPA
-7.77
-2.88
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
46
46
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-5.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model64.3%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+10.7
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
+0.5
Final Difference
101.8
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Value
Ptile
12/30
1.9
61
01/06
1.1
54
01/13
-1.9
33
09/08
-3.2
30
11/17
2.4
69
11/24
0.1
52
12/01
-10.4
4
10/04
-0.8
39
10/08
-1.4
34
10/18
-0.5
42
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
12/08
1.3
63
12/15
0.4
54
12/21
3.6
76
12/29
4.2
79
09/13
-1.1
36
09/20
5.9
83
09/27
5.5
80
10/04
-0.5
43
10/11
4.0
73
10/18
-1.7
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Bears logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
23
2
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
20
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
23
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
21
12
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Rams logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
17
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14

EPA

EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
20
20
EPA / Rush
24
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
19
21
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
11
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
18
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
-23
L
L
U
12/29
2
W
L
O
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/20
4
W
L
U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
-8
L
L
U
10/08
1
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
W
U
LAR logo

Rams

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
16
W
W
U
12/15
-23
L
L
O
12/21
-3
L
W
O
12/29
7
W
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
8
W
L
U
10/11
20
W
W
U
10/18
-8
L
L
U