CHIBears
3-4
12
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
4-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
3
6
12
Saints
7
7
0
6
20
Spread
+8.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
307
387
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
4.7
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.04
Passing Yards
150
286
Comp/Att
14/33(42%)
23/28(82%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.22
Rushing Yards
157
101
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.75
-9.74
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-13
Sack EPA
-3.18
-4.40
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
31
51
Penalty EPA
-6.82
-7.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+76.3
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
31
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
25
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
10
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
3
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
6
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U