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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bears @ saints week 8, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CHI logo
CHIBears
3-4
12
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
20
NOSaints
4-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
3
3
6
12
Saints
7
7
0
6
20

Spread

CHI logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Bears logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
307
387
Total Plays
66
60
Yards / Play
4.7
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.04
Passing Yards
150
286
Comp/Att
14/33(42%)
23/28(82%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
10.2
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.22
Rushing Yards
157
101
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Bears logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bears logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.75
-9.74
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-13
Sack EPA
-3.18
-4.40
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
31
51
Penalty EPA
-6.82
-7.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+77.4
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-8.9
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
10/09
-4.1
24
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-8.2
7
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
12/11
-6.0
12
12/18
10.6
97
12/24
1.7
62
01/01
1.4
59
09/11
4.6
83
09/17
5.1
84
09/24
5.8
87
10/01
4.0
80
10/15
-1.4
43
10/22
2.0
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Bears Offense vs Saints Defense
Bears logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
14

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
17
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
31
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
25
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
27
4th Down Efficiency
23
10
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Saints Offense vs Bears Defense
Saints logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
2
7
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
6
10

EPA

EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
3
13
EPA / Rush
3
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
13
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
6
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-3
L
W
O
12/24
-20
L
L
O
01/01
-28
L
L
O
09/10
-6
L
W
U
09/17
-22
L
L
U
09/24
6
W
W
U
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
O
10/22
14
W
W
U
NO logo

Saints

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
7
W
W
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-6
L
W
O
09/11
-10
L
L
O
09/17
-16
L
L
O
09/24
21
W
W
O
10/01
20
W
W
U
10/15
14
W
W
O
10/22
9
W
W
U