CHIBears
1-1
25
TBD
Lumen Field
60°F
7 mph
19
SEASeahawks
1-1
TBD
Lumen Field
60°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
7
10
8
25
Seahawks
10
3
0
6
19
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
346
Total Plays
58
75
Yards / Play
5.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.07
Passing Yards
235
243
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
26/44(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.01
Rushing Yards
85
103
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.92
-8.98
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-18
Sack EPA
-5.59
-2.26
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
60
45
Penalty EPA
-4.57
-7.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
Seahawks+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+27.6
Away QB Adjustment
+24.9
Market Regression
-26.6
Final Difference
-1.2
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
S. Wallace
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+27.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
24
21
EPA / Pass
23
28
EPA / Rush
21
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
25
21
Seahawks Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
7
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
31
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
22
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
30
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
0-2-8
O/U
Seahawks
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-2-8
O/U