CHIBears
6-7
33
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
027
MINVikings
6-7
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
10
10
7
6
33
Vikings
7
3
10
7
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
397
407
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.05
Passing Yards
198
249
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.09
Rushing Yards
199
158
Rush Attempts
42
28
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
26
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.07
-2.07
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-4
-22
Sack EPA
-2.84
-5.75
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
36
--
Penalty EPA
-5.49
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
20
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
12
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
9
28
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
13
Yards / Game
2
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
8
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
17
28
Fumbles / Game
27
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U