CHIBears
3-12
10
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
038
MINVikings
7-8
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
10
0
0
10
Vikings
7
17
0
8
32
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
374
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
5.5
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.20
Passing Yards
140
--
Comp/Att
13/20(65%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.29
Rushing Yards
183
124
Rush Attempts
37
28
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
22%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
25%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-21.60
+0.18
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-9.70
--
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-6.36
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+78.3
Home QB Adjustment
+32.0
Away QB Adjustment
-46.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Barkley
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-46.2
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
28
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
32
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U