CHIBears
5-10
10
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
023
MINVikings
12-3
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bears
0
1
0
3
4
Vikings
7
7
7
0
21
Spread
13
P
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
201
327
Total Plays
53
67
Yards / Play
3.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.12
Passing Yards
171
180
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.03
Rushing Yards
30
147
Rush Attempts
15
36
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
8%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-2.05
-2.75
Penalties
10
12
Penalty Yards
116
103
Penalty EPA
-14.45
-13.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,707
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.1
Home QB Adjustment
-22.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
17
Rushing Yards / Game
16
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
17
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
13
13
Fumbles / Game
25
32
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
12
RZ Efficiency
5
4
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10
EPA
EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
26
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
6
29
Fumbles / Game
11
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bears
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
5-5
O/U