CINBengals
1-0
17
TBD
Soldier Field
80°F
020
CHIBears
0-1
TBD
Soldier Field
80°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
0
3
14
17
Bears
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
206
Total Plays
55
61
Yards / Play
4.5
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.27
Passing Yards
179
83
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
15/24(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.5
EPA / Pass
-0.50
-0.29
Rushing Yards
69
123
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-24.17
-5.08
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-33
Sack EPA
-3.62
-4.86
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
57
70
Penalty EPA
-7.36
-9.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
-7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
-11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-36.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
21
Yards / Game
14
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
9
20
EPA / Rush
22
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
17
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
11
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
23
14
Bears Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
27
10
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
18
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
28
2
RZ Efficiency
30
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U