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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ bills week 6, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
5-0
34
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
4 mph
21
BUFBills
3-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
10
14
3
34
Bills
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

CIN logo
-3

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
355
368
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.29
-0.00
Passing Yards
--
256
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.01
Rushing Yards
112
112
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
58%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.00
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.32
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
20
93
Penalty EPA
-1.96
-9.92

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.6
Market Regression
-44.0
Final Difference
-28.7
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Value
Ptile
12/07
7.3
89
12/14
-6.2
14
12/22
1.0
57
12/28
-2.2
34
01/04
-4.0
25
09/13
5.3
84
09/20
3.9
78
09/27
7.2
92
10/04
6.1
87
10/11
4.3
80
E. Manuel headshot

E. Manuel

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Value
Ptile
10/03
-3.6
27
11/10
-4.7
20
11/17
4.1
79
12/01
1.2
59
12/08
-15.9
0
12/15
0.7
55
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
1.5
61
09/21
-0.9
43
09/28
-5.8
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16

EPA

EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
23
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7

EPA

EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
2
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
16
RZ Efficiency
26
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-21
L
L
O
12/14
30
W
W
U
12/22
9
W
W
O
12/28
-10
L
L
U
01/04
-16
L
L
U
09/13
20
W
W
O
09/20
5
W
W
U
09/27
4
W
W
O
10/04
15
W
W
O
10/11
3
W
P
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
16
W
W
U
12/07
-7
L
W
U
12/14
8
W
W
U
12/21
-2
L
L
O
12/28
8
W
W
U
09/13
13
W
W
U
09/20
-8
L
L
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
1
W
W
U