CINBengals
5-0
34
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
4 mph
21
BUFBills
3-2
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
10
14
3
34
Bills
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
368
Total Plays
61
67
Yards / Play
5.8
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.29
-0.00
Passing Yards
--
256
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.01
Rushing Yards
112
112
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
58%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.00
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.32
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
20
93
Penalty EPA
-1.96
-9.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-34.0
Home QB Adjustment
-7.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.6
Market Regression
-43.7
Final Difference
-28.4
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
15
Yards / Game
16
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
16
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
6
6
Fumbles / Game
25
15
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
5
3
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
16
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U