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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ bills week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
4-8
34
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph
39
BUFBills
8-4
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
7
14
0
13
34
Bills
3
8
7
15
33

Spread

CIN logo
+6

Total

OVER
54.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
338
418
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
5.9
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.29
Passing Yards
276
235
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.58
Rushing Yards
62
183
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
83%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.58
-6.88
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-18
Sack EPA
-1.09
-3.54
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
68
Penalty EPA
-8.03
-5.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model74.3%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+44.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
184.1
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
11/17
5.4
81
12/01
4.4
78
12/09
6.6
88
12/15
2.1
64
12/22
5.1
80
12/28
10.2
97
01/04
2.7
68
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
-6.5
10
11/27
1.2
60
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
09/18
4.8
83
09/28
2.8
70
10/05
4.9
83
10/13
-5.1
16
10/26
1.4
61
11/02
7.7
94
11/09
2.5
68
11/16
11.9
99
11/20
-7.8
5
11/30
1.7
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
18
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29

EPA

EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
10
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
12
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
6
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
18
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32

EPA

EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
3
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
6
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-38
L
L
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/05
-13
L
L
O
10/12
-9
L
W
O
10/16
2
W
W
O
10/26
-1
L
L
O
11/02
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-22
L
L
U
11/23
-6
L
W
U
11/27
18
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
10
W
L
O
09/28
12
W
L
O
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/26
31
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/30
19
W
W
U