CINBengals
13-4
27
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
4 mph
10
BUFBills
14-3
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
3
7
3
27
Bills
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
325
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.06
Passing Yards
240
261
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.04
Rushing Yards
172
64
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
19
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
60%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.54
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-3
Sack EPA
-1.72
-1.33
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-7.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model64.8%
Spread Pick
Bengals+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.8
Away QB Adjustment
+17.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
106.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
18
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
22
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
7
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
9
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U