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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ bills week 20, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
13-4
27
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
4 mph
10
BUFBills
14-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
32°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
14
3
7
3
27
Bills
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

CIN logo
+6

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
412
325
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.06
Passing Yards
240
261
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.33
-0.04
Rushing Yards
172
64
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
5.1
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
30
19
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
60%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.54
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-3
Sack EPA
-1.72
-1.33
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-7.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,660
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.8
Away QB Adjustment
+17.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.0
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Value
Ptile
10/31
-1.8
39
11/06
3.9
80
11/20
3.4
78
11/27
2.1
69
12/04
9.6
95
12/11
-0.5
48
12/18
3.2
77
12/24
8.1
93
01/08
-0.5
48
01/15
0.9
58
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Value
Ptile
11/06
-1.3
44
11/13
5.4
86
11/20
-0.5
48
11/24
2.2
70
12/01
3.6
79
12/11
0.8
57
12/17
10.1
97
12/24
-0.2
51
01/08
2.4
72
01/15
-3.5
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Bills Defense
Bengals logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
7
4
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
1
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6

EPA

EPA / Play
5
6
EPA / Pass
4
12
EPA / Rush
18
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
32
22
RZ Efficiency
7
2
Bills Offense vs Bengals Defense
Bills logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
3
5
Yards / Game
2
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5

EPA

EPA / Play
3
7
EPA / Pass
5
10
EPA / Rush
7
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
26
15
Fumbles / Game
31
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
9
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

9-1
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-19
L
L
P
11/06
21
W
W
O
11/20
7
W
W
O
11/27
4
W
W
U
12/04
3
W
W
U
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
11
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
W
U
01/08
11
W
P
O
01/15
7
W
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-3
L
L
U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
11/20
8
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
L
U
12/01
14
W
W
U
12/11
8
W
L
U
12/17
3
W
L
O
12/24
22
W
W
O
01/08
12
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
L
O