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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ broncos week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
2-1
3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
66°F
12 mph
28
DENBroncos
1-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
66°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
0
0
3
Broncos
7
14
0
7
28

Spread

DEN logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
159
512
Total Plays
43
80
Yards / Play
3.7
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.20
Passing Yards
106
--
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.32
Rushing Yards
53
186
Rush Attempts
15
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
9
29
Passing 1st downs
3
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
18%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.64
--
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
65
72
Penalty EPA
-5.88
-6.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+14.2
Net QB Adjustment
+74.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-72.2
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Browning headshot

J. Browning

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-72.2
Value
Ptile
11/26
-1.9
36
12/04
9.8
97
12/10
6.4
88
12/16
0.1
49
12/23
-2.8
30
12/31
-1.3
40
01/07
3.8
74
09/21
-6.5
10
B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
11/24
2.1
64
12/02
-1.7
36
12/15
-4.6
19
12/19
5.6
82
12/28
3.5
72
01/05
15.5
100
01/12
-0.2
48
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
4.4
79
09/21
-1.9
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bengals logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
4
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5

EPA

EPA / Play
14
7
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
7
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
27
19
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
1
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
3
16
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Broncos logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
15
30
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
28
11
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32

EPA

EPA / Play
17
29
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
17
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
21
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-7
L
L
O
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
18
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
L
U
09/07
1
W
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
O
09/21
-38
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
10
W
W
O
12/02
9
W
W
O
12/15
18
W
W
P
12/19
-7
L
L
O
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/05
38
W
W
U
01/12
-24
L
L
U
09/07
8
W
L
U
09/14
-1
L
L
O
09/21
-3
L
L
U