CINBengals
11-3
17
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
16°F
6 mph
20
DENBroncos
10-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
16°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
7
7
0
3
0
17
Broncos
0
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
390
Total Plays
70
63
Yards / Play
4.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
186
277
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.18
Rushing Yards
108
113
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
59%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.82
-4.35
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-22
Sack EPA
-2.09
-4.58
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
45
40
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-4.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model66.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,624
Away nfelo
1,650
Home Field
+100.8
Base HFA
+59.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.6
Time Adj
+21.1
Net QB Adjustment
+73.4
Home QB Adjustment
-42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-116.1
Market Regression
+4.5
Final Difference
121.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. McCarron
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-116.1
Value
Ptile
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-42.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
4
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
6
13
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
8
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Broncos Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
27
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
23
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
16
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U