CINBengals
10-6
16
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
22 mph
21
CLEBrowns
7-9
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
38°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
1
3
6
10
Browns
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
182
376
Total Plays
52
66
Yards / Play
3.5
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.07
Passing Yards
103
171
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.38
-0.20
Rushing Yards
79
205
Rush Attempts
18
41
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
24
Passing 1st downs
4
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
15
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.30
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-33
-5
Sack EPA
-7.59
-8.44
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
32
46
Penalty EPA
-3.57
-6.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,556
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+157.6
Home QB Adjustment
+17.3
Away QB Adjustment
-140.3
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-140.3
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
14
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
8
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
12
21
EPA / Pass
9
11
EPA / Rush
22
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
17
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
14
4th Down Efficiency
5
27
RZ Efficiency
23
28
Browns Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
13
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
20
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
30
2
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U