CINBengals
4-6
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LACChargers
6-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
3
14
7
27
Chargers
7
17
3
7
34
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
452
435
Total Plays
78
63
Yards / Play
5.8
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.06
Passing Yards
342
280
Comp/Att
28/50(56%)
17/36(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.06
Rushing Yards
110
155
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.40
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-17
Sack EPA
-4.36
-3.94
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
56
50
Penalty EPA
-5.94
-4.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+64.0
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+23.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.9
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
2
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
4
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
14
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
14
Interceptions / Game
9
7
Fumbles / Game
27
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
5
2
Chargers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
25
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
14
17
EPA / Rush
19
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
5
9
Fumbles / Game
3
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
19
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U