CINBengals
8-7
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
12 mph
25
KCChiefs
9-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
36°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
14
0
0
17
Chiefs
7
6
3
9
25
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
373
Total Plays
71
53
Yards / Play
3.7
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
159
241
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.00
-0.00
Rushing Yards
104
132
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
3.3
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.58
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-38
-4
Sack EPA
-6.28
-5.04
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
39
Penalty EPA
-2.61
-6.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+70.0
Base HFA
+45.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+44.5
Home QB Adjustment
-24.0
Away QB Adjustment
-68.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
180.8
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-68.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-24.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
7
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
15
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
1
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
5
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
10
8
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
8
31
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
16
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
21
21
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U