CINBengals
12-7
27
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
41°F
4 mph
24
KCChiefs
14-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
41°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
3
7
11
3
3
27
Chiefs
7
14
0
3
0
24
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
375
Total Plays
67
67
Yards / Play
5.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.02
Passing Yards
245
236
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.16
Rushing Yards
116
139
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
25%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.01
-7.94
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-39
Sack EPA
-1.39
-7.10
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
30
--
Penalty EPA
-4.04
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,692
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+42.7
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+37.0
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+37.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
17
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
24
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
24
Interceptions / Game
11
15
Fumbles / Game
2
5
Turnover EPA / Game
17
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Chiefs Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
1
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7
EPA
EPA / Play
1
10
EPA / Pass
1
14
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
2
RZ Efficiency
11
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U