CINBengals
2-3
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
14 mph
35
NEPatriots
4-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
66°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
7
3
17
Patriots
3
7
13
10
33
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
437
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.5
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.31
Passing Yards
237
358
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
29/35(83%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.53
Rushing Yards
120
79
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
42%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-1.72
-3.67
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
46
55
Penalty EPA
-9.36
-0.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+186
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+58.2
Home QB Adjustment
+67.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+67.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
5
EPA / Pass
12
8
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
18
12
Patriots Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
4
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
1
4
Fumbles / Game
14
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U