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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ ravens week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
6-3
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
17 mph
20
BALRavens
3-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
0
0
3
14
0
17
Ravens
10
7
0
0
3
20

Spread

BAL logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
364
189
Total Plays
87
71
Yards / Play
4.2
2.7
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.22
Passing Yards
244
104
Comp/Att
24/51(47%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
2.9
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.45
Rushing Yards
120
85
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
26%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.36
-9.94
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-30
-36
Sack EPA
-5.93
-7.53
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
134
65
Penalty EPA
-15.72
-5.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
+17.1
Final Difference
1.1
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
Value
Ptile
01/05
-6.6
11
09/08
3.5
74
09/16
3.7
75
09/22
-2.0
39
09/29
-4.7
20
10/06
-2.9
33
10/13
4.8
83
10/20
9.5
95
10/27
8.6
93
10/31
-6.9
11
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Value
Ptile
01/20
3.2
71
02/03
5.3
83
09/05
-1.8
40
09/15
0.4
52
09/22
-1.9
39
09/29
-9.3
4
10/06
-2.2
37
10/13
0.8
56
10/20
3.9
76
11/03
-2.1
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
20
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
24
29
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8

EPA

EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
31
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
31
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/08
-3
L
P
O
09/16
10
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
-11
L
L
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
3
W
L
O
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
40
W
W
O
10/31
-2
L
L
P
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/20
15
W
W
U
02/03
3
W
W
O
09/05
-22
L
L
O
09/15
8
W
W
U
09/22
21
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
-2
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O