CINBengals
6-3
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
17 mph
20
BALRavens
3-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
60°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bengals
0
0
3
14
0
17
Ravens
10
7
0
0
3
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
189
Total Plays
87
71
Yards / Play
4.2
2.7
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.22
Passing Yards
244
104
Comp/Att
24/51(47%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
2.9
EPA / Pass
-0.32
-0.45
Rushing Yards
120
85
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
26%
19%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
16
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.36
-9.94
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-30
-36
Sack EPA
-5.93
-7.53
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
134
65
Penalty EPA
-15.72
-5.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.8
Home QB Adjustment
-6.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.1
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
6.1
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.1
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
14
10
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
4
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
24
29
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
13
23
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
31
8
Fumbles / Game
9
15
Turnover EPA / Game
18
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
5
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U