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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ ravens week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
3-8
32
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
11 mph
14
BALRavens
6-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
38°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
9
14
6
32
Ravens
7
0
7
0
14

Spread

CIN logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
382
346
Total Plays
80
57
Yards / Play
4.8
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.34
Passing Yards
254
223
Comp/Att
24/46(52%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.73
Rushing Yards
128
123
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
42%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
17%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
4
Turnover EPA
-3.93
-22.94
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-23
Sack EPA
-1.35
-11.36
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
53
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-6.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+206
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+39.4
Base HFA
+43.9
Divisional Adj
-19.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
11/07
8.6
94
11/17
5.4
81
12/01
4.4
78
12/09
6.6
88
12/15
2.1
64
12/22
5.1
80
12/28
10.2
97
01/04
2.7
68
09/07
-4.7
19
09/14
-6.5
10
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
01/11
7.2
91
01/19
4.3
77
09/07
8.0
94
09/14
4.3
79
09/22
1.8
63
09/28
-2.0
36
10/30
4.3
78
11/09
-0.1
50
11/16
-8.6
4
11/23
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Ravens Defense
Bengals logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
18
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11

EPA

EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
21
21
EPA / Rush
10
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
11
Interceptions / Game
28
15
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Ravens Offense vs Bengals Defense
Ravens logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
11
31
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32

EPA

EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
25
29
EPA / Rush
1
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
11
11
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
7
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
29
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
4
W
W
O
09/21
-38
L
L
O
09/29
-25
L
L
U
10/05
-13
L
L
O
10/12
-9
L
W
O
10/16
2
W
W
O
10/26
-1
L
L
O
11/02
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-22
L
L
U
11/23
-6
L
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
24
W
W
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-17
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/26
14
W
W
O
10/30
22
W
W
U
11/09
8
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
L
O
11/23
13
W
L
U