CINBengals
7-4
7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
14 mph
35
PITSteelers
8-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
0
7
0
0
7
Steelers
0
22
7
0
29
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
232
295
Total Plays
55
59
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.33
+0.18
Passing Yards
128
159
Comp/Att
14/30(47%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.19
+0.25
Rushing Yards
104
136
Rush Attempts
22
33
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
18%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.61
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-17
Sack EPA
-3.34
-3.62
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
109
29
Penalty EPA
-9.06
-3.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,618
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+7.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
1
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
3
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
9
EPA / Pass
18
7
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
8
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
28
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Steelers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
4
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
7
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
27
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
8
RZ Efficiency
15
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U