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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bengals @ titans week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CIN logo
CINBengals
1-2
3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
82°F
4 mph
27
TENTitans
1-2
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
82°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
0
0
3
Titans
3
21
3
0
27

Spread

TEN logo
+2

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Bengals logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
211
400
Total Plays
51
62
Yards / Play
4.1
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.21
Passing Yards
139
227
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.39
Rushing Yards
72
173
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Bengals logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
22%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Bengals logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-2.42
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-26
-15
Sack EPA
-10.01
-5.11
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
27
Penalty EPA
-5.98
-3.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+50.2
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+3.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
-15.1
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.1
Value
Ptile
12/11
-0.5
48
12/18
3.2
77
12/24
8.1
93
01/08
-0.5
48
01/15
0.9
58
01/22
6.0
89
01/29
-5.0
17
09/10
-8.0
8
09/17
1.3
58
09/25
-5.0
20
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Value
Ptile
10/23
-4.8
19
11/13
3.3
77
11/17
3.6
79
11/27
2.4
72
12/04
-3.0
28
12/11
-2.4
33
12/18
-5.7
14
09/10
-11.1
2
09/17
2.3
66
09/24
-8.6
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Bengals logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14

EPA

EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
15
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
10
1
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Titans logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26

EPA

EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
13
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
6
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
28
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
13
W
W
U
12/18
11
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
W
U
01/08
11
W
P
O
01/15
7
W
L
O
01/22
17
W
W
U
01/29
-3
L
L
U
09/10
-21
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
P
U
TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-4
L
L
U
12/04
-25
L
L
O
12/11
-14
L
L
O
12/18
-3
L
P
U
12/24
-5
L
L
U
12/29
-14
L
P
U
01/07
-4
L
W
U
09/10
-1
L
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-24
L
L
U