CINBengals
1-2
3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
82°F
4 mph
27
TENTitans
1-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
82°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bengals
3
0
0
0
3
Titans
3
21
3
0
27
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
211
400
Total Plays
51
62
Yards / Play
4.1
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.21
Passing Yards
139
227
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
19/26(73%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.39
Rushing Yards
72
173
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
22%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-2.42
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-26
-15
Sack EPA
-10.01
-5.11
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
40
27
Penalty EPA
-5.98
-3.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-41
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+50.2
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+2.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.2
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bengals Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
1
13
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
10
1
Titans Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
28
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26
EPA
EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
13
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
7
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
6
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
8
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bengals
7-3
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
1-9
SU
3-5-2
ATS
3-7
O/U