BUFBills
4-8
6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
13 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
3-9
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
3
0
6
Buccaneers
14
10
3
0
27
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
246
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
3.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.09
Passing Yards
147
81
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
9/25(36%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
3.2
EPA / Pass
-0.71
-0.47
Rushing Yards
67
165
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
13
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
9%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-19.72
-2.88
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-37
-9
Sack EPA
-9.21
-2.29
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
114
76
Penalty EPA
-9.90
-11.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,416
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
15
4
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
29
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27
EPA
EPA / Play
27
8
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
24
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
4
Interceptions / Game
9
2
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
22
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U