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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ buccaneers week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-8
6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
13 mph
27
TBBuccaneers
3-9
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
0
3
0
6
Buccaneers
14
10
3
0
27

Spread

TB logo
-3

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
214
246
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
3.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.40
-0.09
Passing Yards
147
81
Comp/Att
18/33(55%)
9/25(36%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
3.2
EPA / Pass
-0.71
-0.47
Rushing Yards
67
165
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
14
13
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
1
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
9%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-19.72
-2.88
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-37
-9
Sack EPA
-9.21
-2.29
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
114
76
Penalty EPA
-9.90
-11.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+3.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manuel headshot

E. Manuel

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
3.4
73
09/15
2.5
67
09/22
-5.8
15
09/29
-8.7
5
10/03
-3.6
27
11/10
-4.7
20
11/17
4.1
79
12/01
1.2
59
M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Value
Ptile
09/29
-6.0
14
10/13
0.7
55
10/20
0.6
54
10/24
-0.2
48
11/03
2.3
66
11/11
-5.4
17
11/17
3.4
73
11/24
-2.6
35
12/01
-6.9
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Bills logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
21
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15

EPA

EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
31
18
EPA / Rush
9
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
15
4
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
29
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Buccaneers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27

EPA

EPA / Play
27
8
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
24
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
4
Interceptions / Game
9
2
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
14
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
22
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-7
L
L
O
09/29
3
W
W
U
10/03
-13
L
L
O
10/13
-3
L
W
O
10/20
2
W
W
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/10
-13
L
L
U
11/17
23
W
W
O
12/01
-3
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/29
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-11
L
L
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/24
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U