BUFBills
7-5
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
4 mph
33
TBBuccaneers
9-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
82°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
0
3
7
17
0
27
Buccaneers
7
17
0
3
6
33
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
466
488
Total Plays
76
77
Yards / Play
6.1
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.19
Passing Yards
293
351
Comp/Att
36/54(67%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.22
Rushing Yards
173
137
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
9.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.48
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
26
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
15%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
60%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.75
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-15
-12
Sack EPA
-4.11
-2.46
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
65
24
Penalty EPA
-3.07
-3.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,684
Away nfelo
1,679
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+15.5
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
30
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
2
4
EPA / Pass
5
4
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
31
Interceptions / Game
19
8
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
2
6
Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
16
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
6
2
EPA / Rush
11
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
32
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U