BUFBills
3-1
38
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
76°F
020
KCChiefs
2-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
76°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
17
1
7
32
Chiefs
3
10
0
7
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
57
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
436
392
Total Plays
54
79
Yards / Play
8.1
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
272
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
33/54(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.56
-0.18
Rushing Yards
121
120
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
45%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.18
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-1.00
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
103
55
Penalty EPA
-16.16
-5.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,643
Home Field
+64.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+18.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U