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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ chiefs week 20, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
12-6
36
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
6 mph
42
KCChiefs
13-5
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
7
7
7
15
0
36
Chiefs
7
7
9
13
6
42

Spread

KC logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
424
552
Total Plays
64
73
Yards / Play
6.6
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.38
Passing Yards
315
370
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
33/44(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.49
Rushing Yards
109
182
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
23
30
Passing 1st downs
14
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-3.42
-2.21
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-2.66
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,677
Away nfelo
1,705
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.6
Away QB Adjustment
+18.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Value
Ptile
11/14
2.3
70
11/21
-2.4
35
11/25
5.8
87
12/06
-0.5
49
12/12
10.2
97
12/19
-1.8
40
12/26
12.9
98
01/02
-6.5
12
01/09
3.4
77
01/15
18.2
100
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Value
Ptile
11/07
-3.1
31
11/14
13.3
99
11/21
-4.5
22
12/05
-3.1
30
12/12
2.2
69
12/16
9.3
95
12/26
5.9
87
01/02
6.6
90
01/08
6.2
89
01/16
13.1
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Bills logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19

EPA

EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
1
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Chiefs logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16

EPA

EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
5
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
11
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/14
28
W
W
O
11/21
-26
L
L
O
11/25
25
W
W
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/12
-6
L
L
O
12/19
17
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
14
W
P
U
01/09
17
W
W
U
01/15
30
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
6
W
L
U
11/14
27
W
W
O
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
39
W
W
O
12/16
6
W
W
O
12/26
26
W
W
O
01/02
-3
L
L
O
01/08
4
W
L
O
01/16
21
W
W
O