BUFBills
12-6
36
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
6 mph
42
KCChiefs
13-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
7
7
7
15
0
36
Chiefs
7
7
9
13
6
42
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
552
Total Plays
64
73
Yards / Play
6.6
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.38
Passing Yards
315
370
Comp/Att
27/38(71%)
33/44(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.49
Rushing Yards
109
182
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
4.5
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
30
Passing 1st downs
14
21
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-3.42
-2.21
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-2.66
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,680
Away nfelo
1,705
Home Field
+42.7
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.6
Away QB Adjustment
+18.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
17
Yards / Game
5
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
6
19
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
1
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
10
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
12
31
RZ Efficiency
2
16
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
5
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
3
EPA / Pass
1
2
EPA / Rush
5
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
13
4
Fumbles / Game
31
10
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
15
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U