BUFBills
0-1
35
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph
0
MIADolphins
1-0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
0
7
14
35
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
216
Total Plays
64
70
Yards / Play
4.9
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.47
Passing Yards
171
145
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
3.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.57
Rushing Yards
143
71
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.36
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
54%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-6.20
-8.74
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-8
-37
Sack EPA
-2.26
-9.95
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
53
83
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-11.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model59.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,545
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+39.5
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-63.9
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
2
7
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
29
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
15
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U