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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 2, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
0-1
35
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph
0
MIADolphins
1-0
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
14
0
7
14
35
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

BUF logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
314
216
Total Plays
64
70
Yards / Play
4.9
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.47
Passing Yards
171
145
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
3.3
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.57
Rushing Yards
143
71
Rush Attempts
30
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.36
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
54%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-6.20
-8.74
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-8
-37
Sack EPA
-2.26
-9.95
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
53
83
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-11.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model59.2%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,543
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+39.6
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.0
Home QB Adjustment
-12.7
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-64.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
11/29
-1.5
34
12/07
12.2
98
12/13
3.2
68
12/19
13.0
99
12/28
13.5
99
01/03
2.1
59
01/09
9.2
95
01/16
-1.3
35
01/24
3.1
67
09/12
2.3
70
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.7
Value
Ptile
11/01
-4.0
19
11/08
1.8
57
11/15
-0.8
39
11/22
-6.8
8
12/06
2.8
65
12/13
1.4
54
12/20
0.7
50
12/26
-4.3
17
01/03
-0.4
43
09/12
-2.0
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13

EPA

EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
5
8
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
19
14
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
23
RZ Efficiency
2
7
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
22
3
EPA / Pass
19
2
EPA / Rush
29
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
15
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
O
12/13
11
W
W
U
12/19
29
W
W
O
12/28
29
W
W
P
01/03
30
W
W
O
01/09
3
W
L
O
01/16
14
W
W
U
01/24
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-7
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
17
W
W
U
12/06
12
W
W
U
12/13
-6
L
W
O
12/20
10
W
W
U
12/26
1
W
L
O
01/03
-30
L
L
O
09/12
1
W
W
U