BUFBills
10-6
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
63°F
6 mph
14
MIADolphins
11-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
63°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
8
15
Dolphins
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
473
275
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
6.1
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.09
Passing Yards
345
167
Comp/Att
30/38(79%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.01
Rushing Yards
128
108
Rush Attempts
36
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
60%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.05
-3.60
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-14
-6
Sack EPA
-7.46
-1.43
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
41
29
Penalty EPA
-2.63
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.2%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,665
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
-23.9
Final Difference
-1.6
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
1
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U