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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ dolphins week 18, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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BUF logo
BUFBills
10-6
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
63°F
6 mph
14
MIADolphins
11-5
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
63°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
8
15
Dolphins
0
14
0
0
14

Spread

BUF logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
473
275
Total Plays
77
48
Yards / Play
6.1
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.09
Passing Yards
345
167
Comp/Att
30/38(79%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.01
Rushing Yards
128
108
Rush Attempts
36
20
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
60%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.05
-3.60
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-14
-6
Sack EPA
-7.46
-1.43
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
41
29
Penalty EPA
-2.63
-4.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,646
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+41.4
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
-2.4
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
10/22
5.8
85
10/26
8.8
96
11/05
5.7
85
11/13
-1.6
39
11/19
4.5
78
11/26
11.3
98
12/10
-1.1
42
12/17
-0.3
47
12/23
4.1
76
12/31
0.7
54
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
10/22
-1.4
39
10/29
5.7
85
11/05
-1.8
37
11/19
4.2
77
11/24
-1.7
39
12/03
4.8
81
12/11
-3.2
28
12/17
3.5
73
12/24
4.4
77
12/31
-1.8
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Bills logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
6
22
Yards / Game
5
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7

EPA

EPA / Play
3
22
EPA / Pass
6
13
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
13
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Dolphins Offense vs Bills Defense
Dolphins logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
3
8
Passing Yards / Game
16
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15

EPA

EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
4
6
EPA / Rush
9
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
32
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
3
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-4
L
L
O
10/26
6
W
L
U
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/13
-2
L
L
U
11/19
26
W
W
U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/17
21
W
W
U
12/23
2
W
L
O
12/31
6
W
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
14
W
W
O
11/05
-7
L
L
U
11/19
7
W
L
U
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/03
30
W
W
O
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/17
30
W
W
U
12/24
2
W
W
U
12/31
-37
L
L
O