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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ jaguars week 7, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
3-3
31
TBD
Wembley Stadium
48°F
2 mph
34
JAXJaguars
1-5
JAX logo
TBD
Wembley Stadium
48°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
10
0
12
25
Jaguars
0
15
0
7
22

Spread

JAX logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
377
295
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
260
175
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
13/29(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.02
Rushing Yards
117
120
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.98
-6.27
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-38
-7
Sack EPA
-11.51
-1.91
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
87
66
Penalty EPA
-5.46
-7.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,349
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+21.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

E. Manuel headshot

E. Manuel

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
11/10
-4.7
20
11/17
4.1
79
12/01
1.2
59
12/08
-15.9
0
12/15
0.7
55
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
1.5
61
09/21
-0.9
43
09/28
-5.8
16
10/18
2.6
69
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Value
Ptile
12/07
-6.4
13
12/14
-12.0
1
12/18
-3.9
27
12/28
-5.8
16
09/13
-7.8
5
09/20
5.1
82
09/27
-1.7
37
10/04
3.5
76
10/11
2.6
69
10/18
-0.0
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Bills logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
32
Rushing Yards / Game
1
15

EPA

EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
2
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
5
26
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
24
17
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Jaguars logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16

EPA

EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
30
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
18
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-7
L
W
U
12/14
8
W
W
U
12/21
-2
L
L
O
12/28
8
W
W
U
09/13
13
W
W
U
09/20
-8
L
L
O
09/27
27
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-14
L
L
U
12/14
-8
L
W
U
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/28
-6
L
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-34
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
O
10/18
-11
L
L
O