BUFBills
3-3
31
TBD
Wembley Stadium
48°F
2 mph
34
JAXJaguars
1-5
TBD
Wembley Stadium
48°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
10
0
12
25
Jaguars
0
15
0
7
22
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
295
Total Plays
75
63
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
260
175
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
13/29(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.02
Rushing Yards
117
120
Rush Attempts
29
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.98
-6.27
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-38
-7
Sack EPA
-11.51
-1.91
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
87
66
Penalty EPA
-5.46
-7.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-117
Home nfelo
1,348
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+21.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.4
Home QB Adjustment
+17.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
+28.2
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
31
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
32
Rushing Yards / Game
1
15
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
2
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
4
Interceptions / Game
5
26
Fumbles / Game
11
15
Turnover EPA / Game
32
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
24
17
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
15
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
22
Rushing Yards / Game
27
16
EPA
EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
4
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U