BUFBills
5-2
6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
16 mph
9
JAXJaguars
1-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
59°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
3
0
0
6
Jaguars
3
3
0
3
9
Spread
+14.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
218
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
4.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.20
Passing Yards
229
139
Comp/Att
31/47(66%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.07
Rushing Yards
72
79
Rush Attempts
14
27
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
15
5
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
40%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.90
-3.30
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-35
-12
Sack EPA
-5.25
-2.89
Penalties
12
8
Penalty Yards
118
--
Penalty EPA
-13.52
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.5
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market87.7%
Model85.7%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+14.5
Expected Value
+13.2%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-279
Home nfelo
1,351
Away nfelo
1,661
Home Field
+54.7
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-1.3
Final Difference
-311.6
Model Spread
+13.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
31
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
1
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
12
30
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
29
3
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U