BUFBills
4-9
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
20 mph
20
JAXJaguars
4-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
60°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
17
0
7
27
Jaguars
3
7
3
7
20
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
354
Total Plays
72
72
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.13
Passing Yards
168
195
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.30
Rushing Yards
198
159
Rush Attempts
44
31
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
38%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-9.81
-18.61
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-25
-42
Sack EPA
-7.95
-7.36
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
67
80
Penalty EPA
-5.23
-5.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,262
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.9
Away QB Adjustment
-14.9
Market Regression
-76.3
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
28
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
27
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
2
Interceptions / Game
15
27
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
30
RZ Efficiency
29
23
Jaguars Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
20
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27
EPA
EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
30
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
32
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U