BUFBills
1-0
3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
83°F
5 mph
9
CARPanthers
1-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
83°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
0
0
3
3
Panthers
3
3
0
3
9
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
176
255
Total Plays
51
66
Yards / Play
3.5
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.27
-0.11
Passing Yards
107
178
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.03
Rushing Yards
69
77
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
19
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-18
-50
Sack EPA
-3.89
-10.10
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
44
40
Penalty EPA
-6.28
-4.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+77.5
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.4
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
29
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
3
EPA
EPA / Play
22
12
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
13
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
12
24
Fumbles / Game
9
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
22
12
Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
16
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
9
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U