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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ panthers week 8, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
4-2
40
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
9 mph
9
CARPanthers
4-3
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
16
21
0
40
Panthers
0
3
0
6
9

Spread

BUF logo
-7

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
410
244
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
6.8
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.37
-0.28
Passing Yards
165
130
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.54
Rushing Yards
245
114
Rush Attempts
35
28
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
58%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.92
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-20
-45
Sack EPA
-3.83
-14.87
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
60
20
Penalty EPA
-5.02
-3.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-166
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,598
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.1
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Value
Ptile
12/29
5.4
81
01/12
6.9
89
01/19
3.7
74
01/26
3.0
69
09/07
13.7
100
09/14
0.1
52
09/18
4.8
83
09/28
2.8
70
10/05
4.9
83
10/13
-5.1
16
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Value
Ptile
12/18
-2.9
29
12/24
-5.7
14
01/01
-5.8
14
01/08
-2.4
34
09/24
3.0
70
09/22
5.6
82
09/29
1.1
57
10/06
-6.9
8
10/13
0.6
53
10/20
-10.3
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bills logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
5
15
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20

EPA

EPA / Play
1
22
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
2
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
12
8
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Panthers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29

EPA

EPA / Play
25
20
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
22
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
24
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-7
L
L
O
01/12
24
W
W
U
01/19
2
W
W
O
01/26
-3
L
L
O
09/07
1
W
W
O
09/14
20
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
L
O
09/28
12
W
L
O
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-10
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
6
W
W
O
12/29
-34
L
L
O
01/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
W
O
09/21
30
W
W
U
09/28
-29
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
3
W
W
O
10/19
7
W
W
U