BUFBills
4-2
40
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
9 mph
9
CARPanthers
4-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
16
21
0
40
Panthers
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
244
Total Plays
60
59
Yards / Play
6.8
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.37
-0.28
Passing Yards
165
130
Comp/Att
14/23(61%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.54
Rushing Yards
245
114
Rush Attempts
35
28
Yards / Rush
7.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.35
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
58%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-17.92
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-20
-45
Sack EPA
-3.83
-14.87
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
60
20
Penalty EPA
-5.02
-3.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-171
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.1
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
2
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
2
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
10
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
5
9
Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
14
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
25
8
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
20
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U