BUFBills
8-3
24
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
2 mph
10
NEPatriots
6-5
TBD
Gillette Stadium
35°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
14
0
7
24
Patriots
7
0
0
3
10
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
242
Total Plays
72
51
Yards / Play
4.9
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.13
Passing Yards
223
182
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.02
Rushing Yards
132
60
Rush Attempts
37
14
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
14
Passing 1st downs
15
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
60%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.48
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
-4.29
-1.79
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
47
62
Penalty EPA
-6.34
-7.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-108
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,655
Home Field
+22.0
Base HFA
+40.1
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
+25.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
11
Yards / Game
2
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
7
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
31
20
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
6
EPA
EPA / Play
26
6
EPA / Pass
22
12
EPA / Rush
24
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
17
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
28
22
RZ Efficiency
32
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U