BUFBills
11-3
38
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
4 mph
9
NEPatriots
6-8
TBD
Gillette Stadium
41°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
21
7
7
38
Patriots
3
6
0
0
9
Spread
-7
Total
PUSH
47
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
474
201
Total Plays
71
48
Yards / Play
6.7
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.44
-0.07
Passing Yards
--
56
Comp/Att
30/40(75%)
9/21(43%)
Yards / Pass
--
2.7
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.49
Rushing Yards
130
145
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
11
Passing 1st downs
19
3
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-4.91
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-2.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-134
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-52.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+38.9
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+38.9
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
8
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
6
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
16
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
14
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
12
29
Patriots Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
14
Yards / Game
26
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
4
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
24
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U