BUFBills
5-2
31
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
14 mph
10
SEASeahawks
4-3
TBD
Lumen Field
55°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
7
10
7
31
Seahawks
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
445
233
Total Plays
69
47
Yards / Play
6.4
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.14
Passing Yards
281
201
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.04
Rushing Yards
164
32
Rush Attempts
34
17
Yards / Rush
4.8
1.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.64
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
17
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
53%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
8
1
3rd Down Attempts
15
7
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
-6.25
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-2
-11
Sack EPA
+1.31
-1.39
Penalties
13
11
Penalty Yards
85
82
Penalty EPA
-10.32
-8.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
+7.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
32
9
Rushing Yards / Game
9
16
EPA
EPA / Play
2
10
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
3
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
5
Interceptions / Game
2
13
Fumbles / Game
1
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
6
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Seahawks Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
4
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
26
10
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
30
4th Down Efficiency
21
14
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U