BUFBills
9-4
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
31°F
6 mph
10
PITSteelers
8-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
31°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
10
17
Steelers
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
229
Total Plays
64
56
Yards / Play
4.1
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.38
Passing Yards
131
178
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.42
Rushing Yards
130
51
Rush Attempts
38
14
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.89
-18.95
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-1.63
-5.62
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
70
30
Penalty EPA
-5.76
-3.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-118.5
Home QB Adjustment
-107.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
+1.6
Final Difference
23.9
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
D. Hodges
Proj. Value
-6.0
Team Elo Adj
-107.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
5
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
21
13
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
21
4
EPA / Rush
10
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
15
2
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
23
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
20
3
Steelers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
2
Yards / Game
30
4
Passing Yards / Game
30
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
32
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
19
Interceptions / Game
28
12
Fumbles / Game
22
18
Turnover EPA / Game
5
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
32
6
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U