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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ texans week 12, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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BUF logo
BUFBills
7-3
19
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
23
HOUTexans
5-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
6
10
0
3
19
Texans
3
17
3
0
23

Spread

HOU logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
326
261
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
4.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
183
--
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.39
-0.21
Rushing Yards
143
108
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
9
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.64
--
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-70
--
Sack EPA
-12.48
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
54
40
Penalty EPA
-4.95
+1.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-62
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-27.3
Home QB Adjustment
-15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-107.0
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
09/07
13.8
100
09/14
0.1
53
09/18
4.8
83
09/28
2.8
71
10/05
4.9
84
10/13
-5.1
17
10/26
1.5
62
11/02
7.7
94
11/09
2.5
69
11/16
12.0
99
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Value
Ptile
11/13
-2.6
31
11/20
-9.5
3
12/11
0.3
55
12/18
0.7
57
12/24
-4.1
22
01/01
-2.0
37
01/08
0.5
56
01/05
-4.8
17
11/09
2.3
67
11/16
-1.1
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Bills logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
3
3
Yards / Game
3
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2

EPA

EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
3
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Texans logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
18
8
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28

EPA

EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
30
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
14
Interceptions / Game
21
10
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
29
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
1
W
W
O
09/14
20
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
L
O
09/28
12
W
L
O
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/13
-10
L
L
U
10/26
31
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-5
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
L
U
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
26
W
W
U
10/05
34
W
W
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U