BUFBills
10-6
19
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
022
HOUTexans
10-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Bills
7
6
3
3
0
19
Texans
0
0
8
11
3
22
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
364
Total Plays
81
67
Yards / Play
5.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.06
Passing Yards
253
221
Comp/Att
25/48(52%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.06
Rushing Yards
172
143
Rush Attempts
30
34
Yards / Rush
5.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
52%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
11
6
3rd Down Attempts
21
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.87
-4.90
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-27
-28
Sack EPA
-8.72
-10.68
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-7.82
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model63.5%
Spread Pick
Texans-2.5
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
58.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+70.0
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
-6.9
Final Difference
95.9
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
24
28
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
7
24
EPA
EPA / Play
20
26
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
15
23
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Texans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
2
Yards / Game
11
4
Passing Yards / Game
17
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
19
Interceptions / Game
18
12
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
18
6
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U