BUFBills
3-1
14
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
13 mph
7
TENTitans
2-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
7
0
7
14
Titans
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
252
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
5.0
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.32
Passing Yards
204
150
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.05
Rushing Yards
109
102
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
12
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.32
--
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-15
-33
Sack EPA
-5.84
-7.51
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
78
60
Penalty EPA
-9.16
-6.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+64.3
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.2
Time Adj
-9.8
Net QB Adjustment
-1.6
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
13
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
15
7
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
2
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
4
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
4
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
19
Interceptions / Game
6
12
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Bills
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U