DENBroncos
2-4
45
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
010
ARICardinals
1-5
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
9
14
7
3
33
Cardinals
3
0
7
0
10
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
223
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
5.6
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.71
Passing Yards
178
154
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
21/39(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-1.00
Rushing Yards
131
69
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.13
-31.67
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-11
-40
Sack EPA
-1.90
-18.70
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-6.12
-3.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+57.5
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-47.4
Home QB Adjustment
-34.0
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-34.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
26
Yards / Game
19
21
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
11
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
23
29
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
21
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
18
22
Cardinals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
32
10
EPA / Pass
32
17
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
22
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U