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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
5-9
16
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
19
LACChargers
5-9
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
3
13
16
Chargers
3
10
0
6
19

Spread

LAC logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
396
316
Total Plays
77
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.06
Passing Yards
263
227
Comp/Att
24/47(51%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
133
89
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
41%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-1
-26
Sack EPA
-1.45
-2.26
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
44
45
Penalty EPA
-6.07
-4.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
-6.6
9
10/18
-9.6
4
10/25
-3.9
20
11/01
0.1
47
11/08
2.7
65
11/15
-11.9
2
11/22
-0.8
39
12/06
-4.0
20
12/13
6.0
83
12/19
-2.1
28
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Value
Ptile
10/12
3.0
67
10/25
11.5
98
11/01
2.2
61
11/08
3.8
72
11/15
-1.0
37
11/22
6.8
88
11/29
-2.5
26
12/06
-10.4
3
12/13
2.3
61
12/17
6.1
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
26
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
31
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
21
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
-27
L
L
O
11/01
1
W
W
O
11/08
-7
L
L
O
11/15
-25
L
L
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/29
-28
L
L
U
12/06
-6
L
W
U
12/13
5
W
W
O
12/19
-29
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/25
10
W
W
O
11/01
-1
L
L
O
11/08
-5
L
L
O
11/15
-8
L
L
O
11/22
6
W
L
O
11/29
-10
L
L
U
12/06
-45
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
W
O