DENBroncos
5-9
16
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
019
LACChargers
5-9
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
0
3
13
16
Chargers
3
10
0
6
19
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
316
Total Plays
77
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.06
Passing Yards
263
227
Comp/Att
24/47(51%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.04
Rushing Yards
133
89
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
41%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.04
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-1
-26
Sack EPA
-1.45
-2.26
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
44
45
Penalty EPA
-6.07
-4.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,381
Home Field
+4.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
-46.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
24
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
26
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
18
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
1
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
22
4th Down Efficiency
32
26
RZ Efficiency
27
8
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
25
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
12
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
21
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Broncos
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U